Lithuania sees no immediate conventional threat from Russia, defense minister says

Lithuania’s defense minister, Robertas Kaunas, stated on Tuesday that there is currently no conventional military threat from Russia, despite growing concerns over potential kinetic operations in the region, LRT reports.

Speaking to journalists, Kaunas confirmed that Lithuanian intelligence has not observed a buildup of Russian forces near the country’s borders. “First of all, I must clarify that our intelligence is working, and we do not see Russian forces gathering near our border. There is no conventional threat at the moment,” he said.

However, Kaunas acknowledged an increase in Russian provocations, including disinformation campaigns and false-flag operations. “There are various provocations, ‘false flag’ campaigns—these possibilities are growing, and our intelligence indicates increasing Russian aggressive behavior,” he added.

His comments follow President Gitanas Nausėda’s warning about possible selective Russian kinetic operations against neighboring states. Nausėda emphasized that Russia, already engaged in Ukraine, would struggle to sustain military operations on two fronts. He also noted that any attack on a NATO member would trigger a strong Alliance response.

Recent tensions include Russia’s unannounced military drills near Estonia’s border. On July 9, Russia conducted live-fire exercises on Lake Peipus, close to Estonia’s eastern border, without prior notification to Estonian authorities. Estonia’s Police and Border Guard Board confirmed it had not been informed in advance.

In June, Lithuania’s Interior Ministry warned of potential Russian provocations against critical infrastructure in the Baltic states. In response, Lithuania has strengthened protection for bridges, power substations, gas supply systems, and communication nodes. The Public Security Service will oversee enhanced physical security, with support from the Lithuanian military if needed.

Earlier this month, The Telegraph reported that the U.S. had warned Poland of a possible limited Russian military provocation in the coming months. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski neither confirmed nor denied the report but stated that Warsaw takes the information seriously, given its source.