Lithuania not fully prepared to counter mass drone attacks, experts warn

Lithuania’s air defence capabilities remain insufficient to repel a large-scale drone assault, military experts and former defence leaders warned during a discussion on LRT Television’s *Forum* programme, following recent drone incidents over the country.

While civil defence alerts functioned as intended during isolated cases, analysts agreed that Lithuania lacks the systems to neutralise a coordinated attack involving dozens of military drones. “If we look at the US conflict with Iran, 98 percent of drones were shot down using fighters, air defence systems, and automated cannons—kinetic firepower,” said military expert Major Darius Antanaitis (ret.). “In Ukraine, the interception rate is 70–90 percent.” He noted that fighter jets remain the most effective countermeasure in peacetime, as a single missile launch—costing around €500,000—can quickly down a drone.

Public figure Šarūnas Jasiukevičius, who supports Ukraine, criticised years of underfunding for air defence, leaving Lithuania vulnerable. “To cover our entire airspace, we’d need 65–70 ground-based systems, costing roughly €3 million monthly just for personnel,” he said. “Each system requires a radar unit, missile launchers, and FPV drone teams for close-range interception.” Jasiukevičius also proposed developing domestic drone-countering technology but lamented slow procurement processes and political reluctance to invest.

Former Air Force commander General Edvardas Mažeikis (ret.) cautioned against overreacting to isolated incidents, arguing that downing every drone in peacetime could cause more harm than the drones themselves. “If debris falls in a populated area, the damage might outweigh the threat of the drone flying overhead,” he said. “Not every drone needs to be intercepted during peace—sometimes the cure is worse than the disease.”

Jonas Vytautas Žukas, Lithuania’s former armed forces chief, stressed that current procedures are ill-suited for rapid response. “If intelligence warns of an impending attack, we could escalate combat readiness or declare a state of emergency,” he said, urging reforms to streamline public procurement and reduce bureaucratic delays. “Right now, we’re dealing with lone drones, but a concentrated assault would require mobilising reserves and relocating units from permanent bases.”

Experts agreed that air defence must function as an integrated system, combining early warning radars, interceptors, and electronic countermeasures—all areas requiring urgent investment and procedural overhauls.