Lithuania’s shift to universal conscription may happen naturally due to demographics

Lithuania’s long-debated transition to universal military conscription could be decided not by political will but by demographic trends, opposition leader Laurynas Kasčiūnas suggested on Monday, as reported by LRT.

Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas and the presidential office agree that universal conscription remains necessary, but both stress that infrastructure and training capacity must be established first. President Gitanas Nausėda has previously stated that the shift is “only a matter of time,” linking it to Lithuania’s goal of forming a national division by 2030.

Kasčiūnas, leader of the conservative Homeland Union–Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD), argued that the current system—where conscription numbers gradually increase each year—could naturally evolve into universal conscription within a few years due to declining youth populations. “Right now, we have 5,000 conscripts, which is already a record,” he said. “If we keep raising that number annually, demographics alone could make conscription universal in practice.”

The opposition leader added that such a transition would allow society to adapt smoothly, citing sociological research that shows military training fosters a willingness to defend the country. “We used to think patriotism came from family, community, or books—but it turns out conscription itself plays a key role,” he said.

While the current government’s programme, led by Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, does not mention universal conscription, both the presidency and the Defence Ministry continue to treat it as an eventual necessity. However, they emphasise that other defence priorities—such as infrastructure development—must take precedence before any formal decision is made.