Lithuania’s Social Democrats weigh coalition options as poll shows no clear public preference

Lithuania’s Social Democratic Party is deliberating its next steps in the ruling coalition after a public opinion poll revealed no strong voter preference for change, LRT reports.

The party’s council met Tuesday to decide whether to remain in government with the conservative Nemuno aušra or shift allegiance to the center-right Democratic Union For Lithuania, recently weakened by a corruption scandal involving its former leader, Saulius Skvernelis.

A survey commissioned from Baltijos tyrimai showed voters rated all three potential coalition scenarios—minority government, partnership with the Democrats, or continuing with Nemuno aušra—almost equally. “People lack a clear opinion; all main options appear similarly rated,” one unnamed Social Democrat said. “The poll shows no pressure to change the coalition.”

Party insiders suggest Social Democrats are prioritizing their core electorate’s views over broader public sentiment, wary of alienating supporters outside the so-called “Vilnius bubble.” While exact poll figures were not disclosed, observers noted a slight preference among the party’s base for a minority government, followed by the Democrats and then the current coalition.

However, minority rule is widely seen as unviable. Former Social Democratic Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas, who led a minority cabinet from 2006–2008, described it as “nerve-wracking,” with opposition factions—even those nominally supportive—demanding costly policy concessions.

Pressure to realign the coalition comes primarily from President Gitanas Nausėda. His concerns include Nemuno aušra leader Remigijus Žemaitaitis’s disregard for coalition partners, exemplified by his ultimatum over the Kapčiamiesčio military range, and the Democrats’ weakened position following raids tied to Skvernelis. Analysts also warn Žemaitaitis may adopt more radical stances ahead of elections to compete with far-right figures like Ignas Vėgėlė.

Social Democrats have resisted Nausėda’s push, despite tensions with Nemuno aušra, whose lawmakers often oppose key bills and provoke public disputes. Meanwhile, state institutions have added pressure on Žemaitaitis’s party: the Central Electoral Commission withheld €241,000 in funding over illegal car rentals and is reviewing prosecutors’ findings on potential campaign finance violations, risking further losses.