Russia would attack Baltic states differently than Ukraine, says British reserve general

A former deputy commander of NATO’s Allied Joint Force Command Europe has warned that any future Russian assault on the Baltic states would differ fundamentally from its invasion of Ukraine, citing lessons Moscow has learned from its failures, LRT.lt reports.

Retired General Sir James Everard, who previously served as NATO’s second-in-command in Europe, told the Lithuanian news outlet that Russia remains a credible threat despite its struggles in Ukraine. “I think Russia has learned a great deal from its unsuccessful invasion of Ukraine,” he said. “If it were to attack the Baltic states, Poland, or any other country on NATO’s eastern flank, it would be a completely different campaign.”

Speaking in Vilnius at the Baltic Military Conference, organised by Lithuania’s Ministry of National Defence and the General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy, Everard stressed that NATO members—particularly in Europe—must adapt. “We always train our soldiers to plan for the worst-case scenario and fight as they expect to fight,” he said. “We need to adjust a little.”

The general acknowledged growing concerns among NATO’s eastern flank nations, including Lithuania, about political willpower should Article 5—the Alliance’s collective defence clause—need to be invoked. However, he dismissed fears of NATO fragmentation, arguing that the US remains committed to its obligations.

“People understand that together we are stronger,” Everard said. “Of course, the US has a strong voice in NATO, but look—Europe is America’s largest trading partner. The relationship has been strong for years. I believe the US will honour its Article 5 commitment.”

Addressing criticism that Europe has underinvested in defence since the Cold War, Everard noted that while challenges like the 9/11 attacks, financial crises, and pandemics have strained priorities, Lithuania’s current defence spending—over 5% of GDP—demonstrates progress. “You’re building infrastructure, investing in divisional headquarters, doing everything needed to fulfil your role in the Alliance,” he said.

When asked whether NATO can adapt to modern warfare—such as drone swarms rendering traditional armour obsolete—Everard did not provide a direct assessment but emphasised the need for continuous preparation.